The German Auto Industry Is Eventually (Maybe) Done With Gas, WIRED

The German Auto Industry Is Ultimately (Maybe) Done With Gas

The German Auto Industry Is Eventually (Maybe) Done With Gas

It’s unavoidable: The age of the internal combustion engine is ending. Growing request for cleaner, greener transport means the fossil-fuel searing powerplants that humanity has relied on and refined over the last century are on the way out. But, like so many superb dynasties, it's leaving a power vacuum in its wake. Auto manufacturers the world over are scrambling to figure out what comes next.

The best place to find the future of the automobile? Its homeland. One hundred thirty years after Karl Benz patented a three wheeled vehicle powered by a single cylinder engine, Germany is home to forty one car and engine plants, which make one in every five cars sold worldwide. Cars represent the country's thickest industry. German giants BMW , Porsche , Audi , and Mercedes-Benz have switched the form of the world by exploding gasoline.

Yet last week, the country turned its back on that history. The Bundesrat, which represents German states at the federal level, voted to ban all diesel and gasoline cars by 2030. Yes, in just fourteen years, the country wants all fresh cars to be emissions-free.

OK, it's a non-binding resolution, and India, the Netherlands, and Norway already have similar proposals on the books. But considering the importance and significance of Germany's auto industry, it's the boldest proposal yet.

Gone Electrified

From the outside, the automakers seem ready for the switch. At this year's Paris Motor Demonstrate, Mercedes displayed off a battery-powered concept SUV , the very first in a coming line of electrified cars. Since VW admitted to selling eleven million over-polluting diesel cars, it can't say enough about EVs. BMW Chairman Harald Krueger said last week his company will systematically electrify all its brands and model series, beginning with a fresh Mini-E and an electrical X3 crossover.

Seems grand, but these promises may be more about buying time than a utter scale shift of concentrate.

“There are people who have a pony in each race, who are talking as much about marketing as they are about technology,” says Brett Smith, who studies advanced powertrain technology at the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan. “It’s raunchy to cut through to what is actually happening.”

“This is a fork in the road,” agrees Mary Gustanski, VP of engineering for Delphi, a major industry supplier that specializes in electrification technologies. “The manufacturers are taking a pause to make sure they select the correct fork.”

Das Dead Diesel

Until recently, the diesel engine was the darling of Deutschland. Automakers promoted the energy-rich gasoline alternative as a way to reduce CO2 emissions without switching the internal combustion status quo. European regulators went along, and diesels accounted for half of car sales on the continent.

VW pretty much ruined that arrangement, but tighter EU regulations on NOx emissions and recognition of associated health concerns were already pushing diesels out of favor.

A big part of the problem is that customers aren't clamoring for electrics. Switching from diesel back to petrol is an lighter alternative, particularly while oil prices are low. But regulators around the world are requiring cleaner cars. Europe has set aggressive two thousand twenty five targets, China has ambitious two thousand twenty goals, and the US has its increasingly stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards.

Staying Lithe

Still, there's the Tesla effect. Elon Musk has made battery power cool, and the big players can't disregard years of salivating love for the Model S and X, along with 373,000 people plonking down $1,000 to reserve their Model 3—a car that doesn't even exist yet. For comparison, VW sold 533,000 Golfs in Europe in 2015—the continent's most popular car.

The mainstream public might not be buying electrified cars en masse, but the thought leaders, the hip kids, and the celebrities are. Automakers have recognized they need an electrical halo product, so they don’t look like they’re being left behind. Witness Porsche's Mission E, BMW's i8, and the recently axed Audi R8 e-tron. Those limited-run cars and concepts that might hit the road maybe someday help the industry look “on the case,” but leave it wiggle room if conditions switch.

The German Auto Industry Is Eventually (Maybe) Done With Gas, WIRED

The German Auto Industry Is Eventually (Maybe) Done With Gas

The German Auto Industry Is Eventually (Maybe) Done With Gas

It’s unpreventable: The age of the internal combustion engine is ending. Growing request for cleaner, greener transport means the fossil-fuel searing powerplants that humanity has relied on and refined over the last century are on the way out. But, like so many superb dynasties, it's leaving a power vacuum in its wake. Auto manufacturers the world over are scrambling to figure out what comes next.

The best place to find the future of the automobile? Its homeland. One hundred thirty years after Karl Benz patented a three wheeled vehicle powered by a single cylinder engine, Germany is home to forty one car and engine plants, which make one in every five cars sold worldwide. Cars represent the country's thickest industry. German giants BMW , Porsche , Audi , and Mercedes-Benz have switched the form of the world by exploding gasoline.

Yet last week, the country turned its back on that history. The Bundesrat, which represents German states at the federal level, voted to ban all diesel and gasoline cars by 2030. Yes, in just fourteen years, the country wants all fresh cars to be emissions-free.

OK, it's a non-binding resolution, and India, the Netherlands, and Norway already have similar proposals on the books. But considering the importance and significance of Germany's auto industry, it's the boldest proposal yet.

Gone Electrical

From the outside, the automakers seem ready for the switch. At this year's Paris Motor Showcase, Mercedes showcased off a battery-powered concept SUV , the very first in a coming line of electrified cars. Since VW admitted to selling eleven million over-polluting diesel cars, it can't say enough about EVs. BMW Chairman Harald Krueger said last week his company will systematically electrify all its brands and model series, commencing with a fresh Mini-E and an electrical X3 crossover.

Seems grand, but these promises may be more about buying time than a total scale shift of concentrate.

“There are people who have a pony in each race, who are talking as much about marketing as they are about technology,” says Brett Smith, who studies advanced powertrain technology at the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan. “It’s raunchy to cut through to what is actually happening.”

“This is a fork in the road,” agrees Mary Gustanski, VP of engineering for Delphi, a major industry supplier that specializes in electrification technologies. “The manufacturers are taking a pause to make sure they select the correct fork.”

Das Dead Diesel

Until recently, the diesel engine was the darling of Deutschland. Automakers promoted the energy-rich gasoline alternative as a way to reduce CO2 emissions without switching the internal combustion status quo. European regulators went along, and diesels accounted for half of car sales on the continent.

VW pretty much ruined that arrangement, but tighter EU regulations on NOx emissions and recognition of associated health concerns were already pushing diesels out of favor.

A big part of the problem is that customers aren't clamoring for electrics. Switching from diesel back to petrol is an lighter alternative, particularly while oil prices are low. But regulators around the world are requiring cleaner cars. Europe has set aggressive two thousand twenty five targets, China has ambitious two thousand twenty goals, and the US has its increasingly stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards.

Staying Pliable

Still, there's the Tesla effect. Elon Musk has made battery power cool, and the big players can't disregard years of salivating love for the Model S and X, along with 373,000 people plonking down $1,000 to reserve their Model 3—a car that doesn't even exist yet. For comparison, VW sold 533,000 Golfs in Europe in 2015—the continent's most popular car.

The mainstream public might not be buying electrical cars en masse, but the thought leaders, the hip kids, and the celebrities are. Automakers have recognized they need an electrified halo product, so they don’t look like they’re being left behind. Witness Porsche's Mission E, BMW's i8, and the recently axed Audi R8 e-tron. Those limited-run cars and concepts that might hit the road maybe someday help the industry look “on the case,” but leave it wiggle room if conditions switch.

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